Takeaways from the Beacon Poll

58%
Among likely voters, Donald Trump has a 30-point lead (58%-28%) against Joe Biden, while Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. garners 5% of the vote. Trump’s lead over Biden has increased by 10 points since our April poll, while Kennedy’s share of the vote dropped from 15% to 5% in the same time frame.
Elections
43%
Voters’ opinions of the state legislature are split down the middle, with 43% approving of the way the legislature is handling its job and 47% disapproving.
Politics
52%
Marsha Blackburn has opened up a comfortable lead against both potential candidates in the U.S. Senate race, leading Gloria Johnson by 20 points (52%-32%) and Marquita Bradshaw by 21 points (54%-33%).
Elections
27%
Only 27% of Tennessee voters support using tax dollars to fund the construction of a potential new Major League Baseball stadium in Nashville. This idea is underwater among Republicans (-29%), Democrats (-35%), and Independents (-31%).
Taxes
57%
A majority (57%) of Tennesseans believe that the 34 counts brought against Donald Trump were politically motivated, while 32% do not. Despite those numbers, public opinion is nearly split when it comes to Trump’s innocence, with 38% of voters believing he’s guilty of a felony and 41% believing he’s not guilty of a felony.
Politics
5%
Only 5% of Tennesseans agree that local governments should be able to use tax dollars to hire contract lobbyists, while 72% disagree.
Taxes

Political Polling Results

Donald Trump leads Joe Biden by 30 points with likely voters, while Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. gets 5% of the vote.

ELECTIONS

Marsha Blackburn leads Gloria Johnson by 20 points with likely Tennessee voters.

ELECTIONS

Tennesseans would prefer Nikki Haley over all other speculated candidates as Donald Trump’s vice presidential pick.

Elections
Nikki Haley
13%
Vivek Ramaswamy
9%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
9%
Marco Rubio
8%
JD Vance
7%
Tim Scott
6%
Tulsi Gabbard
5%

Current Events Polling Results

57% of Tennesseans think the recent charges related to falsifying business records brought against Donald Trump were politically motivated, while 32% believe they were not.

POLITICS

38% of Tennesseans believe Donald Trump is guilty of a felony related to his recent court case related to falsifying business records, while 41% believe he’s not guilty.

POLITICS

For 34% of likely Tennessee voters, the outcome of Donald Trump’s recent trial makes them more likely to vote for him, while 22% are now less likely.

POLITICS

Policy Polling Results

72% of Tennessee voters do not believe local governments should be allowed to use taxpayer money to hire contract lobbyists to lobby state and federal government.

TAXES

44% of Tennessee voters support local government efforts to increase affordable housing through zoning reforms, while 15% would oppose those efforts.

HOUSING

For 80% of Tennessee voters, inflation is a big or very big problem in the United States today.

ECONOMY

State and Local Polling Results

50% of Tennessee voters are dissatisfied with the way things are going in K-12 public education in Tennessee, while 40% are satisfied.

EDUCATION

43% of Tennessee voters approve of the way the state legislature is handling its job, while 47% disapprove.

POLITICS

Cultural Polling Results

58% of Tennessee voters oppose using state tax dollars to fund the construction of a potential new stadium for a Major League Baseball team in Nashville, while 27% would support it.

CULTURE

62% of Tennessee voters believe political correctness has led to a decline in the quality of comedy, movies, and TV shows, while 23% believe it has not.

POLITICS

Methodology

  • Online poll of 1,200 registered voters in Tennessee
  • Only respondents who passed our data quality checks were included in the final results and compensated for participating.
  • Sampling was stratified by demographics and geography.
  • Results were weighted by demographics, party, geography, and behavioral measures to properly reflect the profile of the state.
  • Estimated margin of error: +/- 2.77%
  • Fieldwork: June 20 to July 1, 2024
  • Due to weighting and rounding, percentages may not always total exactly 100%.

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